Under the rule of "survival of the fittest", the operation system of China's business world is evolving and iterating. What will be eliminated, what will remain, and what will be optimized? What new businesses have emerged?
Over the freezing point of passenger flow in 2020, the daily average passenger flow of shopping centers with an area of 30000 square meters and above in China has recovered to 25000 person times, but the recovery is not as expected, which is still far from the pre epidemic level.
It is not easy to attract customers, and it is also difficult to pave. Although the vacancy rate of shopping centers in 20 first tier and second tier cities nationwide will finally drop to 9.0% in 2021, there is still a gap compared with the low level of 6.1% before the epidemic.
Shopping centers, struggling ahead; Brands are also difficult to maintain.
In 2020, the open/close ratio of shopping centers in 24 cities across the country will drop to 0.78, which is "horrible"; By 2021, the number will rise to 1.14, and more than 50000 new stores will be opened for brands of various formats.
Of course, the epidemic also magnified the charm of the Chinese market, allowing some of the original business trends to occur in advance.
This charm comes from the explosive consumption level. In 2019, China's per capita GDP was nearly 70800 yuan, about 90% of the global per capita; In 2021, this figure will exceed 80000 yuan, exceeding the world average. At the same time, per capita disposable income also rose for three consecutive times.
This charm provides a testing ground for business innovation. The local shopping centers, with the trump card of "first store", eye-catching hardware beauty and fashion marketing, are masters; Foreign companies are accelerating to seize the first tier and new first tier cities.
Brands are also busy. "Bold" luxury goods, high attitude and willful price increases; Local leading brands play a big role in "rejuvenation" strategy to seek new life; Successive emerging brands constantly find new categories and create new ways.
The changes in the relationship between these business elements, such as elimination, optimization and rebirth, are accelerating China's push to the next consumption era.
During the epidemic, the whole consumer life showed a sudden change.
Many offline physical stores, especially hotels, catering, tourism, retail and other industries, will suffer serious losses as a result. As many small restaurant owners in the third and fourth tier cities complained, "I used to make some money for the return market at the end of the year, but I found that I could not even live."
Take tourism and retail for example
During the Spring Festival in 2019, the national tourism revenue will be 513.9 billion yuan, which means that the direct economic loss of the tourism industry this year will exceed 500 billion yuan; With reference to the impact on the retail industry in 2003, it means that the direct economic loss caused by 10 trillion retail sales will also exceed 500 billion yuan.
In other words, the direct economic losses caused by tourism and retail alone exceeded 1 trillion yuan!
Let's talk about hotels and restaurants
In order to avoid the spread of the epidemic, activities such as New Year's greetings, family and friends gatherings have been canceled, and even shopping in supermarkets has been canceled.
As a result, as long as the vendors and enterprises were ready to stock up before the year, they faced the risk of losing their inventories.
In addition, the fixed expenses of rent and labor cost, which account for more than 50% of the total, have destroyed the catering industry.
Then let's talk about tourism and film industry
Affected by the epidemic, almost all domestic tourism agencies are closed. In other words, the peak tourist season during the Spring Festival holiday has been completely ruined.
In the film industry, the whole spring festival file has been lost with the inclusion of "lost Mom" by ByteDance.
There is also the retail industry
As China's service industry accounts for a high proportion in the national economy, the cold flow of people will inevitably affect the whole service industry to varying degrees, and the retail industry will bear the brunt.
New Industries that break out with the trend
First, the video industry represented by short video and long video, and mobile games represented by King Glory and League of Heroes.
According to relevant estimates, the daily flow of the King's Glory Year is about 2 billion yuan, which is expected to break the record of daily and monthly flow during the Spring Festival last year. At the same time, both short video and long video, the number of users online and the length of use also increased significantly.
And this trend will continue
That is to say, affected by the epidemic, the pan entertainment industry that stays at home will welcome opportunities.
Second, unmanned distribution and retail, as well as new retail shopping platforms represented by Daily Youxian and Suning stores.
Take Beijing as an example
During the Spring Festival, the online order sales of vegetables and fruits of Beijing Su fresh food increased by more than 200%, and the online order sales of Suning small store vegetable market increased by 245% month on month.
The new retail shopping platforms, including Dingdong and Daily Youxian, have shown signs of increasing delivery time and exceeding demand.
The historical experience has also been verified countless times. Once the consumption habits during the epidemic are formed, they will continue even after the epidemic ends.
Third, online office, smart medicine, and big health and intelligent manufacturing industries.
For enterprises, the epidemic will inevitably stimulate their demand for online office and remote office. In this way, we can not only improve the efficiency of office work, but also avoid the huge risks brought by the epidemic.
In addition, smart medicine relying on online medical consultation, diagnosis and treatment will also be valued again. At the same time, the manufacturing industry will also accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the factory with intelligent equipment to reduce the impact of "people" on production.
